INFINITE CRISIS Behind

Amerigo Rivieccio
The report ISAE provides for the growth of the unemployed in the next year. This reduces investment and industrial production ROME - A research center as the ISAE today published its report on projections for the Italian economy. The ISAE, which on its website describes itself as "a public body which carries out research mainly analyzes and studies in support of decisions on economic and social policy of the Government, Parliament and Public Administration" has painted a bleak picture for the future next Italy.


Italian GDP, if all goes well, could return to pre-crisis levels or the level del 2007, solo nel 2013, spinto verso l’alto (se così si può dire) principalmente dal recupero delle esportazioni.

Il mercato interno resterebbe infatti poco reattivo anche a causa dell’ulteriore rallentamento dell’occupazione, con un input di lavoro che continua la flessione seppur in maniera meno marcata rispetto all’anno scorso (-0,6 % nel 2010 era stato – 2,5% nel 2009). A differenza di quanto accaduto nel 2009 saranno però le persone effettivamente occupate a scendere relativamente di più, con un tasso di disoccupazione che si alzerebbe dal 7,8 % del 2009 all’8.8% nel 2010 e 2011.

L’Isae vede una recessione che seppur non particularly long, from the peak set in expansive full Prodi government in August 2007 to the lowest point, the ISAE fixed in May 2009, right in the Berlusconi government, it's been 20 months but just enough to experience a reduction in investment by 18% a reduction in industrial output by 25% and a reduction in GDP of 6.4% "larger percentage of those seen in previous recessions, even the most severe."

And if someone wants to find consoling to realize that we are not alone in this misfortune, especially with Germany to keep us company, then it should be noted that Italy has been hit hard by the recession after a period growth in slow motion, so as to move back in time to the hands of GDP much more at home than in large European economies, "the quarters of production lost as a result of the recession from Italy were thirty, a number more than double the estimated figure for Germany and France.

progression very black instead of deficit and debt relative to GDP.
deficiency, which in 2008 was 2.7% of GDP, jumped to 5.3% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2010 and 4.6% in 2011, where alarming numbers followed by the general ritual of reassurance 'Institute, in fact if one considers the additional measure for 2011, 0.4% of the product indicated nell'Aggiornamento del programma di stabilita', spiega l'Isae,  "il deficit scenderebbe al 4,2% del Pil, un livello sostanzialmente in linea con quanto indicato nel documento governativo nello scenario di minore crescita".

Per il rapporto debito/Pil i numeri sono: 114.8% nel 2009, 117.2% nel 2010 e 118,2 % nel 2011 ma, considerando la manovra aggiuntiva sopra ricordata, il debito pubblico si attesterebbe il prossimo ann al 117,8% del Pil.
Un livello molto superiore a quello di paesi considerati ad un passo dal fallimento.